USD/JPY is going nowhere fast. The Tankan report, although slightly more weak than generally expected, produced no major fireworks. USD/JPY traded up to the 99.95 area but has since eased back to the 99.77/80 seen currently. Offering interest remains up to 100.00, trailing up to 100.20, the spike high in Tokyo yesterday. Stops are eyed above this level and 100.40, the spike high in London on Friday. It is a new month, quarter and Japanese fiscal year, and dealers seem to be taking it easy, not rushing into positions ahead of the all-important US nonfarm payrolls data this Friday which will likely set the tone for USD going forward. Although some players are talking of another test towards 95 in USD/JPY, along with a possible EUR/USD break above 1.60 on a weak US jobs report, the former may be difficult with Japanese importers and investors, retail and institutional, expected to be solid buyers on dips. This was the case yesterday on moves down in USD/JPY and the JPY crosses, and perhaps increasingly so going forward. The USD/JPY upside could be limited however with USD weak across the board. This is only one possible scenario however

Traders note that the corporate offers clustered near the figure have been sufficient so far to cap the move; the high was around 1.0200/01 and traders at various shops have offers layered into 1.0210. Oil futures have pulled back off their lows, last at $105.65, off $1.93 on the day; gold futures are at $930.60, off $18.20; the TSX down 0.62%, and the S&P off 0.45%, so the “daily fundamentals” aren’t shaping up too Loonie positive. Spot last at 1.0188.

The market seems to lack conviction and, following moves down in USD and in the JPY crosses yesterday in Asia, all traded higher overnight. USD/JPY traded up to as high as 100.17 and EUR/JPY to 158.04. USD/JPY was down to as low as 98.56 in Asia yesterday and EUR/JPY to as low as 155.88. The rather large swings are a testament to the lack of liquidity with specs pushing the market to and fro in the absence of real money or trade-related flows. The end of the Japanese fiscal year Monday has many players based in Tokyo sidelined, awaiting the start of a new period. Japanese exporters look to be awaiting more clear signs of any trend before committing larger for the coming fiscal period, satisfied with taking care of near term needs on USD/JPY and JPY cross upticks. Importers have been solid buyers on dips but are basically done for month, quarter and fiscal year-end, and also remain loath to commit too far out with the USD/JPY and JPY cross trends uncertain at this time.
USD/JPY looks to trade a range today with the upside capped just above 100.00 and the downside limited to 99.00 or so. A number of players look to be caught short still, and they will be buying into dips. The low in New York overnight was 99.33 and the low in London 99.23. Tokyo saw it as low as 98.56. Early sales saw USD/JPY edged down from the 99.70 level to the current 99.49/51, mostly on the back of USD against other units including EUR. The spate of Japanese data out just a short while ago had little impact

USD/JPY opened at 99.50 in NY and rallied sharply to 100.15 after the US data which was on balance, better then expected, taking US stock futures and bond yields higher and bolstering USD/JPY and JPY crosses.
However, rumors of US investment bank problems capped gains for a fall back to 99.34. A second rally above 100.00 was linked to a bounce in stocks and JPY selling at the London fix as well as the preternatural EUR/JPY bid that has been seen for the last two sessions that took the cross to 158.00. A second attempt to take out 100.15 failed with talk of large Asian selling capping gains and a late slide in the DJIA, down over 100 pts, took USD/JPY back to 99.63.
The G-7 meeting was confirmed for April 11th but comments from officials today, some anonymous, suggest that the USD weakness will persist due to fundamentals. In addition, comments from central bank officials, including the Fed and SNB today, expect financial market woes to continue and Fed”s Lockhart does not expect a recovery until 2009. Some are still pointing for further stock market losses and JPY gains to challenge lows near 95.00 in sessions ahead.

we have closed USDCAD before US reports GDP and jobless claims.
small profit was booked 40 pips

New orders for long-lasting U.S.-made manufactured goods unexpectedly fell 1.7 percent during February and a key gauge of companies’ appetite for investment also shrank, according to data on Wednesday that will reinforce concern the economy has chilled.

Economists surveyed by Reuters predicted the report would show overall durable goods orders rose 0.8 percent in February, rebounding from January’s revised fall of 4.7 percent. This was previously reported as a 5.1 percent drop.

Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending, declined 2.6 percent after falling a downwardly revised 1.8 percent in January, the Commerce Department said. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected this measure to slip 0.1 percent after a previously estimated drop of 1.5 percent.

buy usdcad at 1.0169 waiting to retest previous high 1.03

today there are only 5 put options contract traded.
but 135 call options.
110 options contract for MAY 2008 with strike 97.500 and prime = 4.880.
Since the trade price was equal to ask price and since there were no open interest before we think it was buy to open 110 contracts.
Thay will be in profit if USDCAD will be closed higher 102.38 in May 2008.
USDCAD is bullish with declining oil price.

USD/JPY currently trades at 100.12 and dealers are looking for more range- trading in Asian dealings. Forecasts for the topside of tonight”s range start at 100.40 and extend to 100.70. Forecasts for the downside of tonight”s range are clustered around 99.60/70.
EUR/JPY is currently at 156.38 with forecasts for the topside for the range at 156.70-157.00. Forecasts for the base of the range start at 155.80 and extend lower to 155.50. The risk for the cross is the IFO data due during the European session with expectations of a weak number.

• The downward trend in USD/JPY is now well established and we do not see any clear warning signal that hints that it has bottomed. Accordingly, we would expect to see a move lower in USD/JPY in the near-term.
• The break to a new 12-year low in USD/JPY this week is encouraging for bears and highlights the force and ability of the shorts to push the currency lower. It has been a volatile move lower, and the downward trend is now clear - each attempt to break higher is quickly reversed before it even approaches the last high. Moving averages, the trend, candlesticks and MACD all point to further downside ahead with no signs of positive divergence.
• The RSI of 25 has yet to reach oversold levels, which leaves the potential for further downside before a warning shot is fired.
• Accordingly, we continue to look for further downside in USD/JPY. Support is over 12-years old, but lies at 95.40; while resistance comes in at 105.75/65