usdjpy closed on failure
Sunday, August 26th, 2007at 116.55
| EURUSD | 1.2714 | USDJPY | 83.78 |
| GBPUSD | 1.5458 | USDCHF | 1.0090 |
| AUDUSD | 0.9176 | USDCAD | 1.0459 |
| AUDJPY | 76.88 | EURJPY | 106.52 |
| GBPJPY | 129.52 | EURGBP | 0.8222 |
| GBPCHF | 1.5599 | EURCHF | 1.2828 |
at 116.55
There are a number of similarities between the current carry trade
unwind and the one that occurred at the end of February. If we use a
simple G10 carry basket to identify the peak for the trade in late February
and again in July, there is general consistency in terms of relative
currency performance during the unwind, with many of the same
currencies populating both the very top and bottom of the list. Relatively
low-yielding JPY, CHF, and CZK have led the way both times,
while high-yielding NZD, AUD, ISK, TRY and BRL have performed
poorly. Another similarity is the broad strength in the USD. In both
cases, a small handful of currencies managed outright gains against
the USD, with only JPY and CHF managing to advance both times. A
third similarity has been the behavior of the yen. In both cases USD/
JPY fell 3-5% over a 1-2-week span before stabilizing, whereupon
price action became very turbulent over the next couple of weeks as
traders wrestled with the a weak fundamental back drop for the yen
on the one hand and the risk of further carry unwind on the other.
EURJPY lost 400 points during last 24 hours.