| EURUSD | 1.2710 | USDJPY | 83.68 |
| GBPUSD | 1.5404 | USDCHF | 1.0140 |
| AUDUSD | 0.9250 | USDCAD | 1.0339 |
| AUDJPY | 77.42 | EURJPY | 106.38 |
| GBPJPY | 128.92 | EURGBP | 0.8248 |
| GBPCHF | 1.5623 | EURCHF | 1.2890 |
Today US anounced January New Home Sales falled less then expected to 1.23 mln (estimates: 1.26).
I think, it was a result of rate hiking. Because home loans costs more that some time ago. It does not mean that USD will fall down. But some economical factors will press USD
The EUR/USD opened in Asia around 1.1870 after drifting to the lower end of the recent range on Friday despite weak US data. The EUR/USD edged up to hourly resistance around 1.1885 in very early Asia before slipping lower amid talk of stops below 1.1850. The stops were eventually triggered and the EUR/USD fell to 1.1826 before option related buying ahead of a 1.1825 barrier underpinned. The USD sharply changed direction when the USD/JPY plummeted from the 117.15 level to 115.68 and the EUR/USD moved back to 1.1870 despite heavy EUR/JPY selling. The cross fell from 138.60 to 137.25 in a breath-
taking fashion and limited the EUR/USD”s ability to rebound.
Most hope that the EUR/USD has finally broken out of the recent range, but some analysts point out that the break above 1.1950 on Feb 20 gave the same hope. The EUR/USD failed 25 pips higher at 1.1975 on that occasion and it is worrying that it stopped 25 pips lower at 1.1825 on this break lower. There are option
barriers at 1.1825 and 1.1800 that might discourage aggressive attempts lower ahead of the ECB announcement on rates on Thursday.
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Time (NYT)
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Location
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Description
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Forecast
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Previous
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Actual
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| 2006.02.27 04:00 | E-12 | Jan M3 Money Supply y/y | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.6% |
| 2006.02.27 08:30 | CAN | Q4 Current Account Balance | C$ 12.4 bln | C$ 9.3 bln | C$ 13.3 bln |
| 2006.02.27 10:00 | US | Jan New Home Sales | 1.26 mln | 1.27 mln | 1.233 mln |
| 2006.02.27 18:50 | JPN | Jan Industrial Production | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 2006.02.28 05:00 | E-12 | Jan CPI y/y - final | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.4% |
| 2006.02.28 08:30 | US | Q4 GDP - prelim | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.6% |
| 2006.02.28 08:30 | CAN | Dec GDP | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| 2006.02.28 09:30 | US | NY Fed Pres Geithner Speaks | – — | – — | |
| 2006.02.28 10:00 | US | Jan Existing Home Sales | 6.58 mln | 6.60 mln | 6.56 mln |
| 2006.02.28 10:00 | US | Feb Consumer Confidence | 104.5 | 106.3 | 101.7 |
| 2006.02.28 10:00 | US | Feb Chicago PMI | 58.1 | 58.5 | 54.9 |
| 2006.02.28 11:00 | US | Chicago Fed Pres Moscow Speaks | – — | – - | |
| 2006.02.28 19:30 | AUD | Q4 GDP q/q | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| 2006.03.01 04:00 | E-12 | Feb Manufacturing PMI | 54.1 | 53.5 | 54.5 |
| 2006.03.01 04:30 | UK | Feb Manufacturing CIPS | 51.8 | 51.7 | 51.7 |
| 2006.03.01 05:00 | E-12 | Feb CPI y/y — flash estimate | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.3% |
| 2006.03.01 08:30 | US | Jan Core PCE y/y | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% |
| 2006.03.01 08:30 | US | Personal Spending | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 2006.03.01 08:30 | US | Jan Personal Income | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| 2006.03.01 10:00 | US | Fed Board Gov Kohn Speaks | – — | – — | |
| 2006.03.01 10:00 | US | Feb Manufacturing ISM | 55.2 | 54.8 | 56.7 |
| 2006.03.01 10:00 | US | Jan Construction Spending | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 2006.03.01 18:50 | JPN | Feb Monetary Base y/y | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.9% |
| 2006.03.02 02:00 | GER | Jan Retail Sales | 1.0% | -1.4% | 1.7% |
| 2006.03.02 04:00 | E-12 | Feb Services PMI | 57.3 | 57.0 | |
| 2006.03.02 07:45 | E-12 | European Central Bank Interest Rate Announcement | 2.50% | 2.25% | 2.50% |
| 2006.03.02 08:30 | US | Weekly Jobless Claims | 285K | 278K | 294K |
| 2006.03.02 09:30 | US | Fed Board Gov Olson Speaks | – – | – – | |
| 2006.03.02 18:30 | JPN | Feb Tokyo CPI | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 2006.03.02 19:30 | AUD | Jan Retail Sales | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 2006.03.02 19:30 | AUD | Jan Trade Balance | AUD - 1.30 bln | AUD -1.17 bln | AUD -2.690 bln |
| 2006.03.03 02:45 | E-12 | Q4 Real GDP q/q | 1.7% | 1.7% | |
| 2006.03.03 04:00 | E-12 | Feb Services PMI | 57.3 | 57.0 | 58.2 |
| 2006.03.03 09:45 | US | Feb Univ of Michigan Sentiment - final | 87.6 | 87.4 | 86.7 |
| 2006.03.03 10:00 | US | Feb Services ISM | 58.0 | 56.8 | 60.1 |
| 2006.03.03 12:30 | US | Fed Vice Chairman Ferguson Speaks | – — | – — | |
Since USDJPY rally has been already missed, EURUSD and GBPUSD signals are mixed.
There is another currency pair to trade : USDCHF.
Sell it at 1.3169, stop 1.3260 target open.
Our trading recommendation:
EURUSD bought at 1.1910 sold at 1.1951 = +41 PIPS
TOTAL:
USDJPY : +60 PIPS
EURUSD: +65 PIPS
The EUR/USD opened in Asia around 1.1910 after holding up reasonably well during the US session despite better than expected US leading indicators and FOMC Minutes suggesting more rate hikes to come. The EUR/USD eased to 1.1906 after the Fed Fisher made fairly hawkish comments, but good buying emerged to give the paring a base. A decent sell off in the USD/JPY occurred late in the morning and the EUR/USD pushed up to 1.1930 even though theEUR/JPY was sold off from 141.60 to 141.15. The rest of the session saw the EUR/USD drift between 1.1920/30.
The EUR/USD appears to be back in the 1.1850/1.1950 range after the false break out to the top in Asia on Monday. Strong US data and firming expectations that the Fed will hike twice more caps the EUR/USD while consistently hawkish comments from ECB officials underpin the pairing. The EUR/USD will have to break
above the 100-day MA at 1.1950 again for the EUR/USD to gain upside traction while a break below 1.1840 should see down-trend resume. German GDP and French Business Confidence is on tap later today. (JN)
Our trading recommendation:
USDJPY sold at 118.80 bought at 118.50 = +30 PIPS
EURUSD is still open.
TOTAL:
USDJPY : +60 PIPS
EURUSD: +24 PIPS
Buy EURUSD at 1.1908 stop 1.184
Sell USDJPY at 118.80 stop 119.25
Our trading recommendation:
USDJPY sold at 118.24 bought at 118.06 = +18 PIPS
EURUSD bought at 1.1920 sold at 1.1950 = +30 PIPs
TOTAL:
USDJPY : +30 PIPS
EURUSD: +24 PIPS
US Market will be closed. USD will have no strong support during the day.