Our recommendation
Wednesday, January 25th, 2006Sell USDJPY at 115.15 stop 116.35 limit 112.44
Archive for January, 2006
Weekly calendar
Sunday, January 22nd, 2006|
Time (NYT)
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Location
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Description
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Forecast
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Previous
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Actual
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| 2006.01.23 06:00 | UK | Jan CBI Trends | – — | – — | |
| 2006.01.23 08:30 | CAN | Nov Retail Sales ex autos | -0.1% | -0.3% | |
| 2006.01.23 08:30 | CAN | Nov Retail Sales | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 2006.01.23 10:00 | US | Dec Leading Indicators | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 2006.01.23 16:45 | US | NY Fed President Geithner Speaks | – – | – — | |
| 2006.01.23 18:50 | JPN | Dec All industry Index | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 2006.01.23 18:50 | JPN | Nov Tertiary Index | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 2006.01.23 19:00 | US | Fed Governor Olson Speaks | – — | – — | |
| 2006.01.24 06:00 | CAN | Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement | 3.50% | 3.25% | |
| 2006.01.24 21:30 | AUD | Q4 04 CPI | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 2006.01.25 00:00 | JPN | Minutes Release of Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting | 7-2 | 7-2 | |
| 2006.01.25 04:00 | GER | Jan IFO Business Expectations Survey | 99.8 | 99.6 | |
| 2006.01.25 04:00 | GER | Jan IFO Business Current Conditions | 99.8 | 99.6 | |
| 2006.01.25 04:00 | GER | Jan IFO Business Climate Survey | 99.8 | 99.6 | |
| 2006.01.25 04:30 | UK | Q4 GDP | 0.5% | 0.4% | |
| 2006.01.25 04:30 | UK | Minutes Release of Bank of England January Meeting | 7-2 | 8-1 | |
| 2006.01.25 10:00 | US | Dec Existing Home Sales | 6.90 mln | 6.97 mln | |
| 2006.01.25 16:45 | US | Fed Governor Olson Speaks | – — | – — | |
| 2006.01.25 18:50 | JPN | Dec Trade Balance | 950 bln yen | 597.3 bln yen | |
| 2006.01.26 06:30 | JPN | Jan Tokyo CPI y/y | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 2006.01.26 08:30 | US | Weekly Jobless Claims | 295K | 271K | |
| 2006.01.26 08:30 | US | Dec Durable Goods Orders | 1.0% | 4.4% | |
| 2006.01.26 18:50 | JPN | Dec Larg Retailers’ Sales y/y | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 2006.01.27 04:00 | E-12 | Dec M3 Money Supply Growth y/y | 7.5% | 7.6% | |
| 2006.01.27 08:30 | US | Q4 GDP - advanced | 2.8% | 4.1% | |
| 2006.01.27 10:00 | US | Dec New Home Sales | 1.230 mln | 1.245 mln | |
Tuesday, January 17th, 2006
Recommended positions were closed with losses EURUSD -26 pips, USDJPY -52 pips.
Headlines Keep Market Confused About Dollar
Sunday, January 15th, 2006NEW YORK (MNI) - Market players have been bombarbed with so many “eye catching” headlines since the start of the year that they have become increasingly confused about future dollar direction.
“It’s January - no one knows what to think!” said one strategist.
From the release of the December Fed minutes last week, which for some took a March interest rate hike off the table, to last Thursday’s SAFE story suggesting China might diversify future reserves, there has been no let up in negative dollar fodder and yet the greenback has remained rangebound, albeit with a slight bearish bias.
Friday was no exception, with William White, Head of the Monetary and Economic Department at the Bank for International Settlements warning not only that the dollar must fall eventually, but also that the
move could be abrupt.
Although it is “impossible to give odds” on the likelihood of a disorderly dollar fall, “the secular trend of the dollar has got to be weaker” to remedy widening imbalances, he said.
The specific cause for concern, White said, is that “for whatever reason, those holding dollars will tire of watching the value of their assets go down in terms of their own currency — maybe because the value
of assets in U.S. dollars is going down, maybe because the dollar is going down, or maybe because of a combination of the two — and will say, ‘I’m out of here’ in volumes that lead to abrupt changes in
exchange and interest rates.”
US market is closed today
Sunday, January 15th, 2006USD will be weak today. So we recommend to buy EURUSD at 1.2146 and to sold USDJPY at 114.11.
And to close position during the trading day.
Weekly calendar
Sunday, January 15th, 2006|
Time (NYT)
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Location
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Description
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Forecast
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Previous
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Actual
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| 1/15 18:50 | JPN | Nov Current Account Balance | 1.51 trln yen | 1.37 trln yen |
1.4182 |
| 1/15 18:50 | JPN | Dec Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index y/y | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% |
| 1/15 18:50 | JPN | Nov Trade Balance | 1.1 trln yen | 936 bln yen | |
| 1/16 00:00 | US | US Markets Close in Observance of Martin Luther King Day | – — | – — | |
| 1/17 00:00 | JPN | Dec Consumer Confidence | 48.0 | 48.2 | |
| 1/17 04:30 | UK | Dec Consumer Price Index y/y | 2.0% | 2.1% | |
| 1/17 08:30 | US | Jan Empire Manufacturing Survey | 22.0 | 28.7 | |
| 1/17 09:15 | US | Dec Industrial Production | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 1/17 09:15 | US | Dec Capacity Utilization | 80.5% | 80.2% | |
| 1/18 01:00 | JPN | Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting | – — | – — | |
| 1/18 04:00 | E-12 | Nov Industrial Production | 0.9% | -0.8% | |
| 1/18 08:15 | US | Fed Governor Shmidt Speaks | – – | – — | |
| 1/18 08:30 | US | Dec Core CPI m/m | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 1/18 08:30 | CAN | Dec CPI y/y | 2.3% | 2.0% | |
| 1/18 08:30 | US | Dec CPI m/m | 0.2% | -0.6% | |
| 1/18 08:30 | CAN | Dec core CPI y/y | 1.7% | 1.6% | |
| 1/18 09:00 | US | Nov International Capital Flows — Treasury | $70.0 bln | $106.8 bln | |
| 1/18 12:15 | US | Richmond Fed’s Lacker Speas | – — | – — | |
| 1/18 14:00 | US | Fed’s Beige Book | – — | – — | |
| 1/18 19:30 | AUD | Reserve Bank of Australia Bulletin | – — | – — | |
| 1/19 05:00 | E-12 | Nov Trade Balance | EUR 0.8 bln | EUR 0.0 bln | |
| 1/19 05:00 | E-12 | Dec CPI y/y | 2.2% | 2.3% | |
| 1/19 06:00 | UK | BCC Quarterly Survey | NA | NA | |
| 1/19 08:15 | US | San Francisco Fed’s Yellen Speaks | – — | – — | |
| 1/19 08:30 | US | Dec Housing Starts | 2.05 mln | 2.12 mln | |
| 1/19 08:30 | US | Weekly Jobless Claims | 300 K | 309K | |
| 1/19 08:30 | US | Dec Building Permits | 2.1 mln | 2.16 mln | |
| 1/19 12:00 | US | Jan Philadelphia Fed Index | 14.0 | 10.9 | |
| 1/19 12:45 | US | Atlanta Fed’s Guynn Speaks | – — | – — | |
| 1/20 01:00 | JPN | Bank of Japan Releases Monetary Policy Report | – — | – — | |
| 1/20 04:30 | UK | Dec Retail Sales | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 1/20 08:00 | US | RIchmond Fed’s Lacker Speaks | – – | – — | |
| 1/20 21:45 | US | Jan Univ of Michigan Sentiment Survey | 92.9 | 91.5 | |
Result of short-term recommendations
Saturday, January 14th, 2006USDJPY : +38 pips . (sold at 114.68 limit was not reached, and it was bought before the market closing at 114,30)
EURUSD: +46 pips . (bought at 1.2036 and sold at 1.2080 by limit order)
Weekly calendar
Friday, January 13th, 2006|
Time (NYT)
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Location
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Description
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Forecast
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Previous
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Actual
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| 2006.01.09 04:00 | E-12 | Dec Retail PMI | 51.5 | 50.7 | 52.2 |
| 2006.01.09 12:40 | US | Atlanta Fed’s Guynn Speaks | – — | – — | |
| 2006.01.09 13:00 | US | Kansas City Fed’s Hoenig Speaks | – — | – — | |
| 2006.01.09 19:30 | AUD | Nov Trade Balance | - AUD 1.8 bln | - AUD 1.3 bln | -AUD 2.469 |
| 2006.01.10 00:00 | JPN | Nov Workers’ Household Spending y/y | 1.4% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| 2006.01.10 05:00 | GER | Jan ZEW Current Situation | -38.5 | -44.4 | -31.6 |
| 2006.01.10 05:00 | GER | Jan ZEW Economic Sentiment | 64.0 | 61.6 | 71.0 |
| 2006.01.11 00:00 | JPN | Nov Coincident Index | 66.7 | 90.0 | 66.7 |
| 2006.01.11 00:00 | JPN | Nov Leading Economic Index | 60.0 | 81.8 | 60.0 |
| 2006.01.11 18:50 | JPN | Dec Money Supply y/y | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.0% |
| 2006.01.11 19:30 | AUD | Dec Net Change in Employment | 9.0K | 28.0K | 2.1K |
| 2006.01.11 19:30 | AUD | Dec Unemployment Rate | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% |
| 2006.01.12 04:30 | UK | Nov Manufacturing Production | 0.5% | -0.7% | 0.4% |
| 2006.01.12 04:30 | UK | Nov Industrial Production | 0.5% | -1.0% | 0.6% |
| 2006.01.12 07:00 | UK | Bank of England Interest Rate Announcement | 4.50% | 4.50% | 4.50% |
| 2006.01.12 07:45 | E-12 | European Central Bank Rate Decision | 2.25% | 2.25% | |
| 2006.01.12 08:30 | US | Weekly Jobless Claims | 325K | 291K | 309K |
| 2006.01.12 08:30 | CAN | Nov International Merchandise Trade Balance | -C$7.0 bln | -C$7.2 bln | C$ 6.9 bln |
| 2006.01.12 08:30 | US | Nov International Trade Balance | -$65.5 bln | -$68.9 bln | -$64.2 bln |
| 2006.01.12 13:00 | CAN | Bank of Canada Dep Gov Kennedy Speaks | – — | – — | |
| 2006.01.13 00:00 | JPN | Nov Machine Orders | 5.4% | 4.8% | 2.3% |
| 2006.01.13 08:30 | US | Dec Retail Sales ex autos | 0.4% | -0.3% | 0.2% |
| 2006.01.13 08:30 | US | Dec Retail Sales | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.7% |
| 2006.01.13 08:30 | US | Dec PPI ex food & energy | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2006.01.13 08:30 | US | Dec PPI | 0.4% | -0.7% | 0.9% |
| 2006.01.13 10:00 | US | Nov Business Inventories | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| 2006.01.13 13:00 | US | Dallas Fed Fisher Speaks | – — | – — | |
Trading recommendations for today
Thursday, January 12th, 2006Short term:
USDJPY : sell at 114.68 stop 115.20 limit 113.74
EURUSD: buy at 1.2036 stop 1.1973 limit 1.2080
Long term:
USDJPY : sell at 114.75 stop 118.55 limit 110.05
EURUSD: buy at 1.2026 stop 1.1745 limit 1.2493
Trading recommendation for today
Tuesday, January 10th, 2006Long term : EUR/USD (BUY at 1.20), USD/JPY (SELL at 115)
Short term: EUR/USD (HOLD), USD/JPY (HOLD)
We are expecting euro to fall down till 1.19-1.20.