| EURUSD | 1.2718 | USDJPY | 83.76 |
| GBPUSD | 1.5462 | USDCHF | 1.0088 |
| AUDUSD | 0.9177 | USDCAD | 1.0450 |
| AUDJPY | 76.88 | EURJPY | 106.55 |
| GBPJPY | 129.52 | EURGBP | 0.8223 |
| GBPCHF | 1.5599 | EURCHF | 1.2828 |
At 2:15 ET, the FOMC’s latest policy announcement will hit the wires; the market widely anticipates the Fed’s twelfth consecutive 25 basis point increase to the fed funds rate. That element of the economic calendar is sure to sit center stage; the other items scheduled for release are October auto and truck sales data, September construction spending, and the October ISM index.
|
|
Today all the news were good for USD. Both as Germany bad news and US good news. But all forex traders (and even stock traders) are waiting for tomorrow FOMC decision. |
The announcement by US President Bush last week that Bernanke would be nominated
to replace Greenspan as Fed Chairman threw an element of doubt into the mix of
medium-term US interest rate expectations. There was a growing view that the Fed
would keep hiking at a measured rate until the Fed Funds rate was 5%, but
Bernanke”s reputation as being on the dovish side of neutral tempered those
expectations.
|
Time (NYT)
|
Location
|
Description
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Actual
|
| 2005.10.24 04:00 | E-12 | Aug Current Account Balance | EUR -5.4 bln | EUR -5.8 bln | EUR -6.6 bln |
| 2005.10.25 04:00 | GER | Oct IFO Current Conditions | 96.4 | 96.4 | 98.9 |
| 2005.10.25 04:00 | GER | Oct IFO Business Expectations | 95.6 | 95.5 | 98.5 |
| 2005.10.25 04:00 | GER | Oct IFO Business Climate Survey | 96.1 | 96.0 | 98.7 |
| 2005.10.25 07:00 | CAN | Sep Core CPI y/y | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% |
| 2005.10.25 07:00 | CAN | Sep CPI y/y | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.4% |
| 2005.10.25 10:00 | US | Sep Existing Home Sales | 7.20 mln | 7.29 mln | 7.28 mln |
| 2005.10.25 10:00 | US | Oct Consumer Confidence | 88.0 | 86.6 | 85.0 |
| 2005.10.25 15:30 | CAN | Bank of Canada Gov Dodge Speaks | – — | – — | |
| 2005.10.25 19:50 | JPN | Sep Trade Balance | Yen 850 bln | Yen 1.14 trln | 957 bln yen |
| 2005.10.25 21:30 | AUD | Q3 05 CPI y/y | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.9% |
| 2005.10.26 06:00 | UK | October CBI Indutrial Trends Survey | -26 | -27 | -25 |
| 2005.10.26 13:45 | US | Fed Chairman Greenspan Speaks | – — | – – | |
| 2005.10.26 16:00 | CAN | Bank of Canada Gov Dodge Speaks | – — | – — | |
| 2005.10.26 19:50 | JPN | Sep Large Retailers’ Sales y/y | -1.9% | -3.0% | |
| 2005.10.27 08:30 | US | Weekly Jobless Claims | 335K | 355K | 328K |
| 2005.10.27 08:30 | US | Sep Durable Goods Orders | -1.5% | 3.4% | -2.1% |
| 2005.10.27 10:00 | US | Sep New Home Sales | 1.250 mln | 1.237 mln | 1.222 mln |
| 2005.10.27 11:00 | US | Fed Chairman Greenspan Speaks | – — | – — | |
| 2005.10.27 19:30 | JPN | Oct CPI y/y | -0.1% | -0.% | -0.1% |
| 2005.10.27 19:30 | JPN | Sep Workers’ Household Spending y/y | 0.1% | -1.3% | -0.2% |
| 2005.10.27 19:30 | JPN | Sep Unemployment Rate | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% |
| 2005.10.28 04:00 | E-12 | Sep M3 Money Supply Growth y/y | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.5% |
| 2005.10.28 05:00 | E-12 | Oct CPI y/y | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% |
| 2005.10.28 08:30 | US | Q3 Employment Cost Index | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| 2005.10.28 08:30 | US | Q3 Real GDP - Advanced Release | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.8% |
| 2005.10.28 19:50 | JPN | Sep Industrial Production | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
Last two days on FOREX market dollar are loosing its position. As you know forex market depends on other market. American market are falling these days, even devirsified QQQ(Q).
Today there were a very good (for USD) jobless claim data , but not so good other news from USA. You can see the reaction of forex market for this data. See the chart
Wilma had passed across US. It does not caused dollar to fall down.
A lot of traders have the problem when they are closing positions winning only a few pips and then they will see long long trend. One of the solution is trailing stops. It may helps you to earn money on trends, but small step of trailing stops causes closing of positions with negative results. Keep it in mind!
|
Time (NYT)
|
Location
|
Description
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Actual
|
| 2005.10.17 01:00 | JPN | Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Minutes | – — | – — | |
| 2005.10.17 08:30 | US | Oct Empire (NY) Manufacturing Survey | 19.0 | 17.0 | 12.1 |
| 2005.10.17 08:30 | US | Oct Empire (NY) Manufacturing Survey | 19.0 | 17.0 | 12.1 |
| 2005.10.17 16:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed’s Santomero Speaks | – — | – — | |
| 2005.10.17 21:30 | US | Fed Chairman Greenspan Speaks | – — | – — | |
| 2005.10.18 04:30 | UK | Sep CPI y/y | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% |
| 2005.10.18 05:00 | E-12 | Sep ZEW Current Situation | -55.0 | -58.1 | -58.0 |
| 2005.10.18 05:00 | GER | Sep ZEW Economic Sentiment | 42.0 | 38.6 | 39.4 |
| 2005.10.18 05:00 | E-12 | Sep CPI y/y | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.6% |
| 2005.10.18 08:30 | US | Sep Core PPI | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| 2005.10.18 08:30 | US | Sep PPI | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.9% |
| 2005.10.18 09:00 | US | Aug TICS Report on Int’l Capital Flows | $65.0 bln | $87.4 bln | $91.3 bln |
| 2005.10.18 09:00 | CAN | Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision | 3.00% | 2.75% | 3.00% |
| 2005.10.18 14:40 | US | San Francisco Fed’s Santomero Speaks | – — | – — | |
| 2005.10.18 18:45 | US | Fed Vice Chairman Ferguson Speaks | – — | – — | |
| 2005.10.19 10:00 | US | Sep Building Permits | 2.07 mln | 2.14 mln | 2.19 mln |
| 2005.10.19 10:00 | US | Sep Housing Starts | 1.97 mln | 2.01 mln | 2.11 mln |
| 2005.10.19 12:20 | US | Cleveland Fed’s Pianalto Speaks | – — | – — | |
| 2005.10.19 12:30 | US | NY Fed’s Geithner Speaks | – — | – — | |
| 2005.10.19 12:45 | US | Fed Board Governor Kohn Speaks | – — | – — | |
| 2005.10.19 14:00 | US | Fed Beige Book | – — | – — | |
| 2005.10.20 01:00 | AUD | Reserve Bank of Australia Bulletin | – — | – — | |
| 2005.10.20 04:30 | UK | Sep Retail Sales | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| 2005.10.20 05:00 | E-12 | Aug Trade Balance | EUR 2.2 bln | EUR 7.2 bln | -2.6 bln |
| 2005.10.20 08:30 | US | Weekly Jobless Claims | 365K | 389K | 355k |
| 2005.10.20 10:00 | US | Sep Leading Indicators Index | -0.5% | -0.2% | -0.7% |
| 2005.10.20 12:00 | US | Oct Philadelphia Fed Index | 10.0 | 2.2 | 17.3 |
| 2005.10.20 13:10 | US | Atlanta Fed’s Guynn Speaks | – – | – — | |
| 2005.10.20 19:00 | US | Richmond Fed’s Lacker Speaks | – — | – — | |
| 2005.10.20 19:50 | JPN | Aug Tertiary Industry Index | 0.9% | -0.8% | 1.7% |
| 2005.10.20 19:50 | JPN | Aug All Industry Index | 0.8% | -0.8% | 1.1% |
| 2005.10.21 04:30 | UK | Q3 GDP | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% |
| 2005.10.21 08:30 | CAN | Aug Retail Sales | -0.5% | 1.5% | -0.3% |
| 2005.10.21 08:30 | CAN | Aug Retail Sales - exc autos | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 2005.10.21 11:45 | US | St Louis Fed’s Poole Speaks | – — | – — | |
SYDNEY Oct 21 (MNI) - The US dollar was trading weaker against the euro and yen as profit-taking scaled back recent gains and the market awaited fresh support drivers, dealers said.
They said the euro traded to a high of $1.2015 overnight and dollar-yen slipped to Y115.35.
“With the speculative community still long on US dollars, risks of a modest correction in the US dollar are high in the absence of fresh greenback supportive news,” National Australia Bank (NAB) currency strategists said.
At 10:52 am Sydney (0052 GMT) the euro was firmer at $1.2058 from $1.2010 in late New York trading and the dollar was lower at Y115.26 from Y115.35.
Last night’s Philadelphia Federal Reserve business survey rebounded in October to 17.3 index points from 2.2 in September and was above the market consensus of 10.0 index points, although it failed to provide
ample support for the greenback.
In the past week, you may have come across some unfavorable news development regarding the Refco Group. In light of these events, Refco Canada Co. would like to draw your attention to the following:
As of October 18th 2005, RefcoFX Associates, LLC (RefcoFX) in the U.S. is formally operating under Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. The Refco Group has instructed RefcoFX Associates, LLC to delay payments to RefcoFX accounts until they resolve banking and internal matters. However, RefcoFX Canada customers with Refco Canada Co. have free and unrestricted access to their funds.
Customer funds in RefcoFX Canada accounts are held in bank accounts in Canada, in the name of Refco Canada Co.
Refco Canada Co.’s capital in the business remains intact. We have as much excess capital today as we have had for several months. Our liquidity is unchanged.
Furthermore, customer funds in RefcoFX Canada accounts are eligible for coverage by the Canadian Investor Protection Fund [CIPF]. CIPF covers eligible customers’ financial losses of securities, commodity and futures contracts, segregated insurance funds and cash within the limits described in its Coverage Policy dated June 2003 that result solely from the insolvency of a Member.
For the specific conditions that govern customer eligibility, determination of customer losses and maximum limits of coverage, please visit www.CIPF.ca.
RefcoFX Canada continues to process customer deposits and withdrawals. There is absolutely no restriction, moratorium or halt on customer withdrawals. In the past week we have met our obligations by paying out millions of dollars to customers who have requested withdrawals and we have satisfied each and every one of their claims, and will continue to do so. All customers of RefcoFX Canada have free, unrestricted access to the funds in their accounts with Refco Canada Co.