GBPUSD short is closed
June 8th, 2009GBPUSD short is closed at 1.5911 after price quick rebound. Looking at further develepment
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GBPUSD short is closed at 1.5911 after price quick rebound. Looking at further develepment
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we are short GBPUSD at 1.5966. expecting to see 1.50 or so. We will close only on big leg up which will open again continuation of daily uptrend.
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GBPUSD long was closed when it was falling down below 1.60 with a profig of 79 pips.
It looks like USD strength expected in short-term. We can see it on EURUSD chart. Stay away for now.
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The EUR/USD was under pressure during the European session due to more provocative action by North Korea, terrible German GDP data and whispers fro\m the bond market that the huge, 40 BLN USD US Treasury auction was going to be extremely well subscribed and would force those who sold the USD late last week amid fears of disastrous auctions to buy back.
The EUR/USD fell to 1.3856 at one stage before sovereign names came in to the market and started to push the pairing higher again. The 2-year Treasury auction was indeed a resounding success, but the market instead keyed on the much stronger than expected US Consumer Confidence data and decided to sell the USD on the rising risk appetite theme. The EUR/USD made it back to 1.4005 and is trading just below the 1.4000 level in early Asia.
Hourly support has formed around 1.3960 and a break below that level would shift the pressure back to the downside and initially target 1.3930. Very stiff resistance has formed above 1,4000 and a break above 1,4035 is needed to re- ignite upward momentum.
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Sell interest ahead of 1.5950–an option barrier level, capped cable at fractionally fresh six-month peak following its early Europe
break through 1.5926 (today”s Asian session top). Pre-1.5950 supply also kept a lid on GBP/USD last Friday. More option barriers reportedly reside at 1.6000.
North Korea”s reported firing of two more short range missiles a day after its second nuclear test (BBC website) has negatively impacted risk appetite, to the detriment of the pound. Sell stops below 1.5860 (today”s Asian session base), 1.5830 and 1.5800 were tripped en route to a European morning low of 1.5778. Last Friday”s low of 1.5757 is a support point below. A 1.5750 option strike rolls off today. Yesterday”s low was 1.5835 (post-German IFO survey).
The Chinese government is concerned about the recent fall in the value of the USD but sees no viable alternative, according to “sources familiar with the thinking behind Beijing”s FX reserve allocation” (MNI).
Blanchflower warns BoE against raising rates too quickly” was the headline of a Sunday Telegraph article.
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last short was taken out by stop. Now we are going to be on long side. Long at 1.5918 with stop 1.5718 and target 1.69
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Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writing in the UK Telegraph states that there is growing skepticism in the markets that the US Treasury sale of 100 BLN USD wirth of bonds will successfully find buyers. The US government needs to raise 2 TLN USD this year to cover the fiscal stimulus plan and the bank bail-outs. It has to fund 900 BLN USD by September.
Last week US stock market indexes, US-Treasuries and US-Dollar index were falling at the same time. It looks like investors take out money from US assets.
“There isn”t enough capital in the world to buy the new sovereign issuance required to finance the giant fiscal deficits that countries are so intent on running. There is simply not enough money out there,” he said. “If the US loses control of long rates, they will not be able to arrest asset price declines. If they print too much money, they will debase the dollar and cause stagflation.
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It looks like GBPUSD is forming head&shoulder on hourlies. We sold GBPUSD at 1.5226 with the target below 1.50
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Our stop was triggered above 1.37 with the loss of 80 pips.
Then, the price moved down to our target below 1.3550
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Well hyped 1.3700 barriers in EUR/USD were just tested as market reached 1.3697, but defence proved too strong this time. The subsequent pull back limited to the 1.3680″s however and market likely to continue buffering 1.3700 to test resilience of those short the barriers. Gamma demand already picking up today, although we did note some decent size selling of sub 2 week 1.37″s in early London, perhaps on expectations that 1.3700 will hold near term. 10 day 1.37″s traded on the most size - several hundred EUR”s thought to have gone through here around the 14.9 level. 1mth atmf implied vol traded through 14.0 to 14.25 and 1yr 13.9 and 14.0.
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